Chris Klemmer Would Be The #2 Starting Pitcher On The Texas Rangers
The MLB playoffs start today with the Wild Card round and just a quick reminder it's the 2nd year of the 12-team format.
This is a preview blog about the 1st series of the playoffs: (5) Rangers @ Rays (4).
It's broken into 7 categories: SP, catching, infield, outfield, DH/bench, bullpen and manager. I wrote this with casual fans in mind so you can better follow the games and storylines. If you want xFIP and spray charts then I can't help you right now.
Let's get to the matchup.
But first some opening comments:
This is MLB's golden window with the new rule changes. The regular season was a staggering success with drastic attendance and rating increases. That's a huge step in the long-run, and it's nice to finally get a league-wide policy-win on the board. But the real juice with the rule changes will come in the playoffs. The league figured out how to draw a broader audience with regular season play and now it's on a collision course with postseason drama.
Bluntly: this should be the best October baseball of our lives.
Stealing a late base is so much easier. We'll have rhythm in the late innings. Most of the starting pitching is worn out. Almost every lefty is dead pull without the shift. And most important is sub 3-hour games. You're not getting midnight dramatics. It's 10pm central standard, and that 2-hour window absolutely matters.
This is what baseball wants more than anything: maximum late game drama available to the largest number of people. We still gotta play the games but I'm pretty sure it's coming in spades.
Good call
Let's talk Rangers/Rays.
Starting Pitching
The Rangers simply have none right now and that's being nice. Jordan Montgomery can take the ball in game 1 but it things out drastically after. Nathan Eovaldi has been atrocious since returning in September. Andrew Heaney's made one start in 4 weeks. Martin Perez hasn't been in the rotation since July. Dane Dunning threw a couple innings this weekend and won't have 70+ pitches available until game 3. Obviously Scherzer and deGrom are unavailable and I can equally rule out Cody Bradford.
That's about as bad as it gets to begin the postseason. Scout's honor I have a hard time thinking of recently worse starting pitching options. As Klemmer repeatedly emphasizes in our World Series Power Ranking show, Who the fuck pitches game 2? Seriously. Who does it? Name anybody.
The Rays meanwhile have Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale. It's not the Brewers but that's plenty talented. Even if not that successful historically. Glasnow is a powder keg ready to blow while Eflin's got 10 career playoff appearances, none of which have occurred since transforming himself in Tampa. So you get his experience + a fresh perspective and approach. And then Civale is probably the most underrated arm in the series. His results don't always match the stuff and he's largely forgettable. But he's good and this one isn't really close.
Advantage Tampa.
Catching:
Jonah Heim started the All Star Game for the AL but has been awful in the 2nd half. If we say RIGHT NOW, then Jonah Heim loses this comparison easily. He's got a .650 OPS in the 2nd half while the Rays are getting surprise value from 26-year old backup Rene Pinto. He's been outstanding in comparison to Heim and probably gets more plate appearances than Christian Betancourt. That would make sense based on the last 2 months of play.
Even so, I'm not discounting Heim's struggles enough to say Rene Pinto gives the Rays an advantage. I'm not that crazy.
Advantage Texas.
Infield:
This one's easy. It's Texas.
Corey Seager is the best SS in the American League. Marcus Semien is the best 2nd baseman. And together they've combined for 14.3 bWAR, which is more than Trout + Ohtani averaged last 2 seasons. You could have two below average corner infielders next to them and it wouldn't really matter for this comparison.
That's important because Josh Jung and Nathaniel Lowe are good baseball players. But they've been collectively awful down the stretch (.170 batting average and .580 OPS in September) so this is a reality. It still doesn't matter.
And I say that knowing Yandy Diaz and Isaac Paredes have been sensational for the Rays at the corner infield spots. They're still starting Taylor Walls (probably) and a 19 year-old Junior Caminero up the middle and that's a PROBLEM. Much bigger than Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Jung having a rough stretch to close the season.
Advantage Texas.
Outfield:
Randy Arozarena plays for Tampa.
Randy absolutely DOMINATES tournament baseball.
Advantage Tampa.
DH/Bench:
I made it this far without having to mention Robbie Grossman.
One step further, the Rays have consistently used their bench more effectively than Texas this season. There's a greater spread of plate appearances and that's with the Rangers injuries. In a perfect world, Bruce Bochy only has 11 players for the 162. Out of pure practical necessity, you like the Rays bench more.
Same time Mitch Garver is a PROBLEM which is awesome. His .860 OPS in September was 3rd best on Texas and I think he could be a sneaky difference maker. Enough at least to consider this more of a coin flip. But ultimately I still have to take the Rays here. Sorry Mitch.
Advantage Tampa.
Bullpen:
The Rangers have an awful bullpen. Everyone knows this.
The Rays have a good bullpen. Everyone knows this.
Advantage Tampa.
Manager:
9 3/4 hat size^^^
Kevin Cash deserves as much credit as you can give a manager not named Craig Counsell these days. Kevin Cash wins so many baseball games with so few resources. It's truly astounding.
The major hurdle has been translating the regular season dominance to October performance. And that's largely based on style of play, which is entirely dictated by the front office. We saw the backlash that creates when he took out Blake Snell in the 2020 World Series. People still hate that move and rightfully so - it didn't work.
The Rangers meanwhile have Bruce Bochy - a Cooperstown worth manager with nearly a decade+ of using Sergio Romo effectively in late game situations. There's nothing more to say. Very few managers win a head-to-head with Bochy and Kevin Cash is certainly not one of them.
Advantage Texas.
Pick
I've got it scored 4-3 to Tampa. They're at home with much better pitching and a more balanced roster. The Rangers have firepower but probably not enough to overcome their weaknesses. This one has 3 games written all over it but that 3rd one should be a Tampa blowout if it happens.
Gambling Bonus: I don't recommend anyone joins me but worth noting I have Texas today +130 just because I think that number is too high for Jordan Montgomery. I still like Tampa. But +130 is a great price for a game 1 so that's the play and I hate it.
Tampa is the pick.
For more on playoff projections: